The United States Just Took the Marshmallow Test. And Failed.

The Impact of Lockdowns on Infection Rates

Forecast new cases of COVID-19 (in the 85 counties that first reached 150 confirmed cases) from the period March 28 through June 30. The April 16 curve uses actual cases from March 28 through April 16.

Why the Impact of Reopening Was Not Initially Apparent

The curve is nearly horizontal as it begins. Over time it becomes steeper until it is nearly vertical.

Geographic Differences Are the New Norm

What’s Next?

Author, novelist, investor.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store